I’m a Ginebra supporter. My pick to win this series is San Miguel Beer.

Looking at the Beermen’s scoring options and Ginebra’s uneven campaign, I see SMB as the more complete team entering this matchup. That is my assessment, even if the Ginebra fan in me wants a different outcome.

San Miguel finished the eliminations at 9–3, while Ginebra secured its playoff place at 5–5. Their best-of-five Governors’ Cup quarterfinal begins October 27 at 7:30 p.m. at the Smart Araneta Coliseum. First to three wins advances. www.pba.ph

Ginebra has a path to winning this series. These are the five things I believe must happen.

1. Jordan Murphy must deliver something close to his best game

The responsibility falls heavily on Jordan Murphy, and we have already seen what he can provide. In his debut against Rain or Shine, he produced 30 points, 13 rebounds, seven assists and four blocks. www.pba.ph

In my video, I called for a perfect or near-perfect game from Murphy. That is a high standard, but it reflects the size of the assignment.

Murphy needs to score efficiently, rebound aggressively and make quick decisions when SMB sends help. Ginebra also needs him available, which makes avoiding unnecessary fouls essential.

A big scoring total will carry more weight if it comes with controlled possessions, defensive effort and opportunities for teammates. His impact must extend across the game.

Kailangan malaking laro ni Murphy—at kailangan tuloy-tuloy.

2. Make June Mar Fajardo work before he receives the ball

My concern starts with where June Mar catches the basketball.

Once he establishes position close to the rim, Ginebra’s options become much more difficult. Japeth Aguilar and the other big men need support before the entry pass arrives. June Mar is entering the playoffs after a 26-point, 10-rebound performance against NLEX. 

Ginebra should pressure the passer, contest June Mar’s positioning and provide help behind any attempt to front him. Every easy entry pass gives SMB an opportunity to control the possession.

The challenge continues after the shot. Murphy, Scottie Thompson and Troy Rosario must help secure defensive rebounds so a difficult attempt does not become an easy putback.

Pahirapan ang pasa. Pahirapan ang puwesto. Tapusin ang depensa sa rebound.

3. Stephen Holt must lead a disciplined perimeter defense

Holt’s scoring would help. My first demand from him in this series is dependable defense.

SMB has several players capable of punishing a breakdown. Against NLEX, George King scored 27 points, Don Trollano added 23 and Marcio Lassiter contributed 19. CJ Perez gives the Beermen another threat who can attack the defense.

I would use Holt as the first option against King, then adjust the coverage according to how SMB responds. The other perimeter defenders must contain penetration and stay alert to shooters relocating around the floor.

This connects directly to the June Mar problem. If Ginebra keeps getting beaten outside, its big men have to help, leaving someone else open.

Holt can influence this series through difficult catches, contested shots and disciplined possessions—even on a quiet scoring night.

4. RJ Abarrientos and Scottie Thompson must provide scoring support

Murphy needs teammates who can take responsibility for getting points.

RJ Abarrientos is central to that. I want him aggressive enough to challenge SMB’s defense while still getting Ginebra into its offense early. Scottie must also look for his own opportunities through cuts, transition attacks and finishes around the basket.

In my video, I suggested roughly 20 points from RJ and around 12 from Scottie as useful targets. Those are my preferred contributions for this matchup; the quality of their possessions matters more than reaching an exact number.

Scottie recently showed how much his scoring can lift the team, delivering 29 points, 10 rebounds and six assists against Phoenix. Rosario and Jeremiah Gray also supplied 17 and 11 points, respectively, in the win over Blackwater.

That kind of shared production gives Ginebra more ways to answer SMB.

5. Win the “dulo-dulo”: start properly and execute the final five minutes

Ginebra must avoid giving itself an immediate uphill battle. A poor opening means spending energy recovering before the most important possessions arrive.

Then comes the other end of the game: the final five minutes.

SMB’s latest victory offers a warning. The Beermen erased a 20-point deficit to defeat NLEX, 135–133. A comfortable lead can disappear against a team with that many scoring options. www.pba.ph

Ginebra needs secure passes, clear decisions, made free throws and complete defensive possessions. Tim Cone’s group must know where the ball should go when its first option is covered.

Dito susubukan ang composure. Bawat turnover, bawat rebound, bawat possession may bigat.

I also see Game 1 as a major indicator. My hunch is that the team winning the opener will eventually take the series, because it will establish the first set of problems the opponent must solve.

SMB remains my pick. Ginebra has the opportunity to change that assessment on the court, starting with these five demands.

Which will decide this series: Murphy’s performance, the defense on June Mar, or Ginebra’s execution down the stretch?

Watch my full Powcast Sports breakdown on YouTube.