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Philippine Cup: SMB 5-peat or Ginebra 2 in a Row?

Japeth Aguilar blocks June Mar Fajardo

Winning 4 straight Philippine Cup Titles, the San Miguel Beermen is surely eyeing for another one this season. But there's a mighty blockage on their path -- the whole Barangay.

Will Christian Standhardinger be enough to make a difference?

Surely, all you folks are rooting for this two teams this season. The twin tower clash royale. Who got the stronger giant to give its team supremacy and dominance?

Assuming that the only ones left is SMB and Ginebra to take on each other in a do or die finals game 7, who shall prevail?

Let us look at this interesting fact for a while and think of the possibilities.

There'll always be two sides of the coin. How they'll let their team win and how they'll let their team lose.

Let us talk about how both squads would make their team win first. Assuming that the twin towers of each team cancelled out each other, it would be Scottie Thompson's mushroom rebounding that'll give Ginebra the huge boost. Not at all times, it would be Greg, Japeth, June Mar or Christian who'll get the boards. Sooner or later the balance would be broken by a Scottie Thompson and if Ginebra delivers on the succeeding possession, momentum has gone on their way. Nobody in the SMB small men can match up Scottie's extra hassle.


How about for SMB?


Beermen's edge would be outside shooting. If their shooters connect, given that the towers neutralized each other once again, then they'll easily stretch the lead. In fact, chances of beating Ginebra in a shootout favors them. They could also beat Ginebra in transition offense boosted by Chris Ross or Cabagnot to cut through the vulnerable defense in transit.

Most of the time, a team loses in their own hands. Mistakes are inevitable. So here are some that may occur if this hypothetical game would commence.


1. Japeth going out of the paint, so as Christian


Japeth frequently shoots around the perimeter but barely delivers. If this happens, Greg could not handle two beasts under alone. Same goes for Standhardinger. These two big men tend to take shots outside of their comfort zones and this is where things get too risky. Shots are at low probability and rebound would be of the defender's advantage.


2. Twin Foul troubles


The towers are so prone to fouls given the extreme physicality occurring underneath. They also have no choice but to defend slashers from both squads. Ginebra has the Sol train while SMB has Ross wherein both love to go hard to the basket and penetrate whatever defense is in front of them.


Prediction


Based on an empirical discussion done above. In my own opinion, it would be Ginebra that'll go home with the title. Their edge? Experience. Standhardinger is a newborn in the league and a coherent bond between key players (which Ginebra happens to have especially between Japeth and Greg) is not easy to beat. 

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